Scientists call for review of Inner Harbor far-field modeling data
A group of thirteen marine scientists from Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi and the University of Texas Marine Science Institute has released a stark warning about Corpus Christi's proposed Inner Harbor desalination plant, saying the modeling used to evaluate its environmental impact is not yet reliable enough to support a decision.
The scientists reviewed preliminary results from the city's far-field modeling effort and concluded the exercises have "not produced convincing evidence that desalination would not have detrimental ecological effects across the Corpus Christi Bay system.”
Key findings from the report include:
Brine discharge from the plant is expected to intensify stratification and increase the risk of low-oxygen events in the Inner Harbor and Corpus Christi Ship Channel for at least 5 miles out from Inner Harbor's mouth, extending the period of harmful stratification from summer into fall and early winter.
The Ship Channel is a critical nursery corridor for redfish, spotted seatrout, black drum, blue crab, brown shrimp, and white shrimp. Scientists say these species could face significant habitat stress if brine discharge proceeds as planned.
The model has not been validated under drought conditions, despite 2025 being a critically dry year with hypersaline events in Nueces Bay, raising questions about whether it can accurately predict real-world impacts.
Dissolved oxygen was not modeled at all, which the scientists called "an important oversight that limits our ability to fully understand potential impacts."
The model's vertical resolution was 50% lower than required by its contract with Spheros Environmental, potentially masking dangerous stratification near the bottom.
The panel is calling for the city to release all model code and outputs to allow independent peer review rather than waiting until the end of June as currently planned. They are also urging that multi-year, multi-scenario simulations be conducted before city leaders make any further decisions on the project. "Modeling efforts were under severe time constraints, and uncertainties in model setup and validation remain," the report states. "At this time, the scientific experts associated with this statement cannot provide a robust and fully informed assessment of how closely the model reflects reality."